Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy SILVER ETF TRADER +32.4% Annual Return (Compounded) since May 2, 2023 Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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extreme-os
(13202557)

Created by: UyenLe UyenLe
Started: 02/2005
Stocks
Last trade: 6 days ago
Trading style: Equity Short-term Reversal

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $100.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Short-term Reversal
Category: Equity

Short-term Reversal

Exploits the tendency of stocks with strong gains and stocks with strong losses to reverse in a short-term time frame (up to one month).
22.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(61.1%)
Max Drawdown
4619
Num Trades
72.8%
Win Trades
1.3 : 1
Profit Factor
66.2%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2005       +0.9%+21.9%+4.0%+7.7%+1.2%+12.9%+6.6%+6.5%+16.1%+2.3%+11.0%+135.3%
2006+11.0%+4.5%+16.1%+3.1%+12.0%+0.6%+13.0%+8.9%+3.3%+3.2%+4.8%+4.5%+124.3%
2007+10.5%+2.1%+0.9%(4.8%)+11.7%(4.8%)+2.9%+4.0%+4.3%+14.8%(9%)+12.0%+50.3%
2008+12.9%+13.6%(12%)+8.3%+10.2%(0.2%)+14.6%+8.2%+14.2%(28.7%)(17.8%)+6.0%+18.1%
2009(11.1%)(14.4%)(6.6%)+12.4%+6.2%(1.7%)+8.4%+0.7%(3.1%)+0.7%+4.2%+4.3%(3.5%)
2010(10%)+14.9%+6.4%+4.1%+12.4%(1.5%)+10.3%(11.7%)+6.1%+6.4%(0.5%)+9.4%+51.5%
2011+1.2%+1.9%+7.2%+5.3%+13.6%  -  +3.8%(20.6%)(15.9%)+5.0%(6.3%)+5.6%(4.7%)
2012+2.5%+3.0%+2.3%(3.7%)(11.7%)+17.0%+2.3%(1.6%)+7.1%+3.0%+5.0%+2.6%+28.5%
2013(0.4%)+5.4%+4.4%+6.3%(1.6%)+6.1%+3.9%+7.5%(0.9%)+1.2%+5.1%+1.9%+45.9%
2014+0.5%+4.6%+7.2%+2.0%+7.1%+0.7%(3.3%)+5.7%(1.9%)+2.5%(0.7%)(2.3%)+23.8%
2015+0.5%+4.9%+4.1%+1.4%(1.6%)(7.3%)+1.3%(0.4%)(8.3%)+10.0%+6.1%(8.4%)+0.4%
2016(6.1%)+0.1%+4.2%+2.5%(0.2%)+1.9%+2.9%(3.8%)+4.5%(1%)+5.5%(5.3%)+4.5%
2017+1.3%(1.1%)(3.3%)+0.2%(1.2%)+7.2%(1.2%)+1.9%+7.2%(0.8%)+2.2%(0.2%)+12.1%
2018(0.3%)(11.9%)+16.2%+0.5%+9.2%+2.8%+4.9%+5.1%+3.0%(13.5%)+6.5%(6.5%)+12.5%
2019+7.5%(1%)  -  +2.4%(5.5%)+8.2%+1.4%+0.8%(0.3%)+0.4%(0.8%)+0.9%+14.3%
2020+0.1%+3.1%(11.9%)+8.8%+0.6%+10.1%+2.6%+2.7%+2.1%(4%)+10.9%+4.5%+31.3%
2021+3.2%(1.5%)(7.2%)(1.5%)(2%)+5.2%(8.7%)+11.8%+3.8%+3.4%(3.3%)+4.7%+6.3%
2022(7%)(2.9%)+2.3%(6.5%)(2%)(3.8%)+4.3%+3.5%(3.7%)+0.8%+2.4%(3.9%)(16%)
2023+9.3%+4.2%+0.3%(0.6%)+1.0%+0.9%+2.3%(0.3%)(3.8%)(3%)+4.6%+3.4%+19.2%
2024(1.1%)(1.5%)(0.3%)(6.4%)+1.5%+1.0%+0.5%(7.3%)+1.8%(2.4%)            (13.7%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 96 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 5,413 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
10/22/24 15:55 MDB MONGODB INC. CLASS A COMMON STOCK LONG 15 265.29 10/25 10:02 269.98 0.19%
Trade id #149799290
Max drawdown($105)
Time10/23/24 0:00
Quant open15
Worst price258.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
 $70
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.30
10/21/24 11:52 WAL WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORP LONG 40 81.17 10/23 12:43 81.99 0.06%
Trade id #149741024
Max drawdown($35)
Time10/21/24 15:51
Quant open40
Worst price80.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $32
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.80
9/23/24 14:24 BA BOEING LONG 25 157.59 10/21 9:40 162.83 0.51%
Trade id #149486475
Max drawdown($289)
Time10/14/24 0:00
Quant open25
Worst price146.02
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
 $131
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
10/17/24 12:22 FUTU FUTU HOLDINGS LTD ADS LONG 35 87.24 10/17 13:02 88.57 0.04%
Trade id #149687265
Max drawdown($22)
Time10/17/24 12:36
Quant open35
Worst price86.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $46
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.70
10/9/24 12:10 VST VISTRA CORP LONG 25 123.89 10/14 10:08 131.50 0.42%
Trade id #149618755
Max drawdown($234)
Time10/11/24 0:00
Quant open25
Worst price114.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.42%
 $190
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
10/4/24 11:52 ZIM ZIM INTEGRATED SHIPPING SERVICES LTD LONG 200 18.46 10/8 11:18 19.50 0.02%
Trade id #149580935
Max drawdown($11)
Time10/4/24 11:55
Quant open200
Worst price18.40
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $206
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
10/2/24 15:53 SMTC SEMTECH LONG 90 41.23 10/4 9:44 42.38 0.29%
Trade id #149563748
Max drawdown($161)
Time10/3/24 0:00
Quant open90
Worst price39.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 $101
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.80
9/26/24 14:13 MRNA MODERNA INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 50 63.79 9/30 12:48 66.36 0.03%
Trade id #149517539
Max drawdown($17)
Time9/26/24 14:33
Quant open50
Worst price63.43
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $128
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
9/25/24 15:34 CELH CELSIUS HOLDINGS INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 100 31.11 9/27 11:50 32.38 0.04%
Trade id #149507333
Max drawdown($24)
Time9/26/24 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price30.86
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $125
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
2/27/24 14:14 U UNITY SOFTWARE INC LONG 120 30.65 9/25 15:34 21.79 3.73%
Trade id #147464440
Max drawdown($2,010)
Time8/7/24 0:00
Quant open120
Worst price13.89
Drawdown as % of equity-3.73%
 ($1,065)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.40
9/17/24 15:44 SIRI SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. COMMON LONG 130 23.20 9/18 13:14 23.38 0.01%
Trade id #149422909
Max drawdown($7)
Time9/18/24 12:03
Quant open130
Worst price23.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $21
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.60
8/23/24 11:53 SYM SYMBOTIC INC. CLASS A COMMON STOCK LONG 140 23.18 9/16 15:29 22.63 1.56%
Trade id #149020759
Max drawdown($849)
Time9/4/24 0:00
Quant open140
Worst price17.11
Drawdown as % of equity-1.56%
 ($80)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.80
9/11/24 15:21 TSN TYSON FOODS LONG 60 61.47 9/13 12:25 61.85 0.04%
Trade id #149364478
Max drawdown($20)
Time9/12/24 0:00
Quant open60
Worst price61.13
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $22
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.20
9/5/24 11:48 OKTA OKTA INC. CL A COMMON STOCK LONG 45 74.55 9/13 12:25 74.58 0.34%
Trade id #149262853
Max drawdown($179)
Time9/10/24 0:00
Quant open45
Worst price70.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
 $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
9/5/24 13:27 DG DOLLAR GENERAL LONG 40 80.93 9/12 10:31 82.49 0.17%
Trade id #149264671
Max drawdown($88)
Time9/11/24 0:00
Quant open40
Worst price78.71
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 $61
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.80
9/10/24 15:47 BIRK BIRKENSTOCK HOLDING PLC LONG 70 43.76 9/11 14:39 44.66 0.09%
Trade id #149350133
Max drawdown($46)
Time9/11/24 10:47
Quant open70
Worst price43.09
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $62
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.40
8/23/24 11:55 MRNA MODERNA INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 30 82.89 9/10 15:48 79.58 0.63%
Trade id #149020842
Max drawdown($341)
Time9/5/24 0:00
Quant open30
Worst price71.51
Drawdown as % of equity-0.63%
 ($100)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
9/3/24 12:24 BA BOEING LONG 18 160.75 9/4 12:54 164.05 0.06%
Trade id #149222533
Max drawdown($31)
Time9/3/24 14:44
Quant open18
Worst price159.01
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $59
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.36
7/8/24 11:41 CMG CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL LONG 60 59.77 8/28 13:30 55.73 1.29%
Trade id #148590510
Max drawdown($707)
Time8/5/24 0:00
Quant open60
Worst price47.98
Drawdown as % of equity-1.29%
 ($244)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.20
5/20/24 12:18 PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL LONG 70 49.69 8/26 13:48 50.18 1.12%
Trade id #148209431
Max drawdown($685)
Time7/24/24 0:00
Quant open70
Worst price39.90
Drawdown as % of equity-1.12%
 $33
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.40
7/18/24 11:44 MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY LONG 30 115.61 8/15 12:58 107.05 1.68%
Trade id #148681861
Max drawdown($921)
Time8/5/24 0:00
Quant open30
Worst price84.91
Drawdown as % of equity-1.68%
 ($258)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
8/7/24 9:42 DELL DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC LONG 40 91.39 8/13 9:30 97.68 0.33%
Trade id #148854199
Max drawdown($178)
Time8/7/24 14:20
Quant open40
Worst price86.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
 $251
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.80
8/2/24 13:59 CCJ CAMECO LONG 100 38.08 8/7 9:43 39.01 0.48%
Trade id #148810910
Max drawdown($264)
Time8/5/24 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price35.43
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
 $92
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
8/2/24 13:59 RMBS RAMBUS LONG 100 41.31 8/7 9:42 42.70 0.44%
Trade id #148810906
Max drawdown($240)
Time8/5/24 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price38.91
Drawdown as % of equity-0.44%
 $137
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
7/31/24 15:00 MSFT MICROSOFT LONG 12 418.90 8/1 9:55 426.68 0.07%
Trade id #148788058
Max drawdown($40)
Time7/31/24 15:31
Quant open12
Worst price415.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $93
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.24
6/27/24 12:57 FND FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS INC LONG 30 101.10 7/31 14:59 100.24 0.59%
Trade id #148518427
Max drawdown($358)
Time7/10/24 0:00
Quant open30
Worst price89.15
Drawdown as % of equity-0.59%
 ($27)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
7/16/24 15:47 NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A COMMON STOCK LONG 60 50.22 7/31 12:04 50.18 0.32%
Trade id #148664275
Max drawdown($197)
Time7/18/24 0:00
Quant open60
Worst price46.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 ($3)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.20
7/16/24 12:56 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 10 488.71 7/23 12:51 489.88 0.48%
Trade id #148663009
Max drawdown($295)
Time7/17/24 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price459.12
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
 $12
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
7/22/24 13:35 CRWD CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A LONG 15 264.34 7/23 12:50 276.31 0.14%
Trade id #148712146
Max drawdown($83)
Time7/23/24 9:36
Quant open15
Worst price258.77
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 $180
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.30
7/17/24 10:21 SCHW CHARLES SCHWAB LONG 60 63.10 7/22 13:35 63.81 0.2%
Trade id #148670217
Max drawdown($125)
Time7/17/24 13:22
Quant open60
Worst price61.01
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 $42
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.20
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/17/2005
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $15,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    7196.14
  • Age
    240 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    4619
  • # Profitable
    3362
  • % Profitable
    72.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    5.7 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    61.13%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 24, 2008 - March 09, 2009
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    22.6%
  • Avg win
    $85.30
  • Avg loss
    $177.29
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $58,619
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $44,902
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.33:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.69
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.04
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.161
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    5051.04%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.38730
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    375.16%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    22.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    17.40%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.19%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.226%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    23.9%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    58.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    41.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    33.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    12.50%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    2.50%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    8.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    738
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    947
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    973
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    827
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $179
  • Avg Win
    $85
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $224,516.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    237
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $286,777.000
  • # Winners
    3362
  • Num Months Winners
    159
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    4880
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    180253
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    1257
  • % Winners
    72.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    8242.30
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    137.37
  • Avg Trade Length
    5.7 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    0.80
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.72
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.05
  • Beta
    0.53
  • Treynor Index
    0.11
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    66.03
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    88.24
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.16
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    2.244
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.155
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -0.372
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.432
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.20029
  • SD
    0.29971
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.66826
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.66609
  • df
    231.00000
  • t
    2.93831
  • p
    0.00182
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.21767
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.11745
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.21621
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.11596
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.86677
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.82938
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42272
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.22243
  • Upside SD
    0.19847
  • Downside SD
    0.23107
  • N nonnegative terms
    151.00000
  • N negative terms
    81.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    232.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09472
  • Mean of criterion
    0.20029
  • SD of predictor
    0.20021
  • SD of criterion
    0.29971
  • Covariance
    0.02989
  • r
    0.49811
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.74569
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.12966
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06783
  • DF error
    230.00000
  • t(b)
    8.71198
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    2.16866
  • p(a)
    0.01557
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57704
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.91434
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.01186
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24746
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.26859
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.12966
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.12999
  • SD
    0.43246
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.30059
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.29962
  • df
    231.00000
  • t
    1.32170
  • p
    0.09379
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.14632
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.74687
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.14697
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.74621
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.33247
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.03483
  • Upside part of mean
    0.40462
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.27462
  • Upside SD
    0.18641
  • Downside SD
    0.39100
  • N nonnegative terms
    151.00000
  • N negative terms
    81.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    232.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07362
  • Mean of criterion
    0.12999
  • SD of predictor
    0.20730
  • SD of criterion
    0.43246
  • Covariance
    0.03863
  • r
    0.43090
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.89894
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06382
  • Mean Square Error
    0.15296
  • DF error
    230.00000
  • t(b)
    7.24179
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.71371
  • p(a)
    0.23807
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.65436
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.14352
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.11236
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.14461
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06382
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.17677
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.21779
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03148
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.07664
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    232.00000
  • Minimum
    0.20889
  • Quartile 1
    0.99068
  • Median
    1.02065
  • Quartile 3
    1.05337
  • Maximum
    1.33296
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.92751
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00507
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03578
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.09840
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06269
  • Number outliers low
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03448
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.73385
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.01293
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.21536
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.54688
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04682
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.12446
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.54949
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05872
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.16132
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    29.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00128
  • Quartile 1
    0.02311
  • Median
    0.05262
  • Quartile 3
    0.11046
  • Maximum
    0.79111
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01127
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03896
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.09519
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.31000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08735
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10345
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.52198
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.50888
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.32593
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.73097
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.91909
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.37612
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    4.21898
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.58681
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.13882
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.17548
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.44782
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.63743
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.79652
  • SD
    1.52867
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.52105
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.52098
  • df
    5065.00000
  • t
    2.29121
  • p
    0.01100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.07519
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.96687
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.07514
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.96681
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.49101
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.59070
  • Upside part of mean
    2.45243
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.65591
  • Upside SD
    1.43297
  • Downside SD
    0.53422
  • N nonnegative terms
    2852.00000
  • N negative terms
    2214.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    5066.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13698
  • Mean of criterion
    0.79652
  • SD of predictor
    0.35977
  • SD of criterion
    1.52867
  • Covariance
    0.14876
  • r
    0.27049
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.14932
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.63900
  • Mean Square Error
    2.16630
  • DF error
    5064.00000
  • t(b)
    19.99370
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.90880
  • p(a)
    0.02817
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.03663
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.26202
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.01729
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.29545
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.69303
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.63908
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.12966
  • SD
    1.13560
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.11417
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.11416
  • df
    5065.00000
  • t
    0.50205
  • p
    0.30783
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.33155
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.55990
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.33157
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.55989
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.15055
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.37513
  • Upside part of mean
    2.04551
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.91585
  • Upside SD
    0.74006
  • Downside SD
    0.86122
  • N nonnegative terms
    2852.00000
  • N negative terms
    2214.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    5066.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07264
  • Mean of criterion
    0.12966
  • SD of predictor
    0.35903
  • SD of criterion
    1.13560
  • Covariance
    0.12501
  • r
    0.30660
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.96976
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.05922
  • Mean Square Error
    1.16859
  • DF error
    5064.00000
  • t(b)
    22.92220
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.24085
  • p(a)
    0.40484
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.88682
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.05270
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.42277
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.54120
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.13370
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.05922
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.10855
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.13401
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01253
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03046
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    5066.00000
  • Minimum
    0.14159
  • Quartile 1
    0.99643
  • Median
    1.00065
  • Quartile 3
    1.00545
  • Maximum
    5.71618
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97589
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99889
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00275
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03462
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00903
  • Number outliers low
    339.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06692
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.93190
  • Number of outliers high
    328.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06475
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.10495
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.92228
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01917
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.25853
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.73852
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01487
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06074
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    148.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00006
  • Quartile 1
    0.00202
  • Median
    0.00837
  • Quartile 3
    0.02934
  • Maximum
    0.86113
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00114
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00439
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01814
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.17541
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02732
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    24.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16216
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.24559
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.56754
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.13975
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.38198
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.32144
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.18433
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.36548
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.58276
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.13844
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.16076
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.78920
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.03302
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05242
  • SD
    0.11537
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.45433
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.45171
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.32126
  • p
    0.51408
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.22585
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.31887
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.22406
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.32064
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.53736
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.93363
  • Upside part of mean
    0.57881
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.63123
  • Upside SD
    0.06086
  • Downside SD
    0.09755
  • N nonnegative terms
    75.00000
  • N negative terms
    56.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26527
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05242
  • SD of predictor
    0.13087
  • SD of criterion
    0.11537
  • Covariance
    0.00949
  • r
    0.62865
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.55420
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.19943
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00811
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    9.18121
  • p(b)
    0.12799
  • t(a)
    -1.55342
  • p(a)
    0.58600
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43477
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.67363
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.45344
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05458
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.09458
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.19943
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05912
  • SD
    0.11657
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.50714
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.50421
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.35861
  • p
    0.51572
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.27867
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.26631
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.27670
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.26827
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.59642
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.82061
  • Upside part of mean
    0.57697
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.63609
  • Upside SD
    0.06061
  • Downside SD
    0.09913
  • N nonnegative terms
    75.00000
  • N negative terms
    56.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.25662
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05912
  • SD of predictor
    0.13114
  • SD of criterion
    0.11657
  • Covariance
    0.00960
  • r
    0.62774
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.55802
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.20232
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00830
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    9.15931
  • p(b)
    0.12844
  • t(a)
    -1.55904
  • p(a)
    0.58631
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.10900
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43748
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.67856
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.45908
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05444
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.10595
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.20232
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01200
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01496
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00490
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01065
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95040
  • Quartile 1
    0.99703
  • Median
    1.00077
  • Quartile 3
    1.00348
  • Maximum
    1.01406
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99125
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99933
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00207
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00661
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00645
  • Number outliers low
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97119
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00763
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01406
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.06216
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00750
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01065
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.38446
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00809
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01493
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00071
  • Quartile 1
    0.00916
  • Median
    0.01812
  • Quartile 3
    0.04801
  • Maximum
    0.11928
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00071
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01198
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02425
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11928
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03885
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11928
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -443750000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    166
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.05826
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.05741
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.48129
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.48129
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -3.83614

Strategy Description

Visit www.extremetradinginc.com for further description.
You can follow me on twitter at twitter.com/xtremetrading
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2005-02-17
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 2.7%
Rank # 
#20
# Trades
4619
# Profitable
3362
% Profitable
72.8%
Net Dividends
$4,879
Correlation S&P500
0.387
Sharpe Ratio
0.69
Sortino Ratio
1.04
Beta
0.53
Alpha
0.05
Leverage
0.80 Average
2.72 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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This strategy is no longer visible to anyone except current subscribers.

(Current subscribers will remain subscribed. You can see who is subscribed, and control their subscriptions, on your Subscriber Management screen.)

Finally, please note that you can restore public visibility at any time.

This strategy is no longer visible to the public. No subscribers will be allowed.

You can restore public visibility at any time.

Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.